Europe Has Found a New Way to Increase Defense Spending

Paying Americans for Their Defense Capacities Proposed

The United States’ security ties with Europe are fraying. Even before the war in Iran returned the Middle East to the front of policymakers’ minds, the United States was already shifting its focus away from Europe and toward deterring China in the Indo-Pacific. The move is occurring at a perilous moment, with Russia pressuring the continent from its eastern flank as it fights to subjugate Ukraine. As a result, Europeans feel increasingly compelled to take care of their own defense. Luis Simón, director of the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS) at Vrije Universiteit Brussel, and Stephen G. Brooks, professor of government at Dartmouth College, have explored possible solutions.

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency has accelerated the process of alienation with Europe. He has criticized European countries for insufficient contributions to collective defense and threatened to reduce the number of U.S. forces available to NATO during crises. Even if future administrations are less hostile to NATO, the United States is unlikely to reverse its broader shift away from Europe. As a result, discussions over rearmament and defense integration have become a hot topic across the continent’s capitals.

But building these military capabilities is one thing; effectively using them is another. And no matter how well Europe rearms, it cannot adequately reproduce America and its contribution to common security. Washington possesses unparalleled capacities across a variety of capabilities, including command and control; logistics; training; cyberwarfare and cyberdefense; long-term strategic intelligence; battlefield intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (collectively known as ISR); targeting; and air and missile defense.

Europe thus needs a plan to secure reliable access to this suite of military enablers. Doing so would help reduce the risk that an increasingly disengaged Washington abruptly curtails some or all enabling support – and inject a measure of stability into the alliance in this era of strategic upheaval.

Washington has spent generations – and trillions of dollars – accumulating specialized capabilities that allow its military to operate on a global scale. These have been indispensable for Washington’s allies and partners.

Today Washington can provide many of its enablers essentially at will, since it has already paid to develop their capacity to cover multiple theaters.

European leaders are aware of the U.S. shift away from the continent. Many of them, following French President Emmanuel Macron, are now calling on Europe to become as autonomous from the United States as possible, as quickly as possible. But adequately replacing Washington’s enabling capacities will be exceedingly difficult.

If Europeans conclude that they need more, they will have to accept that a series of structural constraints hinder Europe’s capacity to adequately replace the full suite of U.S. enablers any time soon. One is simply money. At present, Europe has only a patchwork of enablers that are unevenly distributed across its States. To fill in the many gaps, Europe would need to spend more than its governments can likely raise, especially while they prioritize rebuilding conventional combat power.

If Europe would struggle to defend itself absent U.S. enablers, then the continent’s leaders need a plan to make sure Washington continues to provide them. And the best way to do so would be to create a medium-term, structured arrangement through which European allies pay for the U.S. enabling infrastructure that underpins NATO’s collective defense.

The most important detail of such a new transatlantic bargain would be its financing structure. A phased arrangement in which Europe delivers its payments over time, conditioned on the continued full provision of U.S. enabling capabilities, would literally raise the cost of disengaging for the United States, since an American decision to cut off the continent would lead Europe to cut off a lucrative, long-term funding stream flowing directly into Washington’s coffers. The Old World would actually pay the New World for the latter’s military umbrella over its territory – even though Europe has little money to spare at this stage.

Source: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/right-way-europe-spend-more-defense