“Political predictions are usually wrong.”
George Orwell, 1946
3-09-2026, 10:57 Analytics / Society

The Changing Patterns Of Migration In Europe

by Delma Danitza Bacarreza
International Relations Specialist with a strong interest in social and civicjournalism, focusing on the political, economic, and social transformations shaping Europe


Migration challenges, promises, and the determination to tackle an emergency. When theory fails to match practice. When theory fails to match practice, promises must be tested against reality in ever-changing contexts.

As promised in my previous article, I would like to continue to talk about immigration because the problem is getting bigger, and it is changing day by day. The latest new migration rules are already in action to help European countries to be faster and manage the arrival of people in Europe.

After searching, I managed to find a statement by Roberta Metsola. EU Parliament President speaking after approval of Migration and Asylum Pact. “We promised a new system that is fair with those eligible for protection, that is firm with those who are not, and that is strong against the traffickers and the networks preying on the most vulnerable of people. Tonight, we have delivered on that promise.”

Promise #1: Better External Border Control

According to the new scheme, every migrant arriving at the EU’s external border has to be screened. This includes preliminary health and vulnerability checks, as well as security checks.

Migrants are identified and registered in a database. Within seven days, a decision must be made on whether the person is eligible for asylum or could potentially face deportation.

Eligible asylum seekers may also be subjected to a so-called border procedure, especially if they come from a country with a low recognition rate for asylum.

This entails being held in a detention facility at their first point of entry for up to 12 weeks while the application is being reviewed.

I understand that there are people within the European Union working hard to draft laws to address an increasingly unmanageable emergency. Unfortunately, however, for those who are on the border or work with immigrants every day, the reality is completely different, one of overcrowded centers, people held for long periods without documents, and a system that certainly does not reflect the laws. And this is a recurring problem: could those involve in drafting these laws be certain that every member country will be able to implement them? Or will implementation, as always, be improvised?

For example, in the case of Italy, Beppe Caccia—who works for Mediterranea Saving Humans—describes how the new procedures of the European Union and of member states like Italy are clearly implementing mass pushbacks and possible mass deportation, with no respect for a proper evaluation of the single position and the single conditions of risk for asylum seekers.

Also, the migration pack of the European Union is in line with an escalation in border violence and violation of fundamental human rights.

That clearly shows how some countries are not prepared to answer the quantity of arrivals; there is a lack of structure.

Promise #2: Ending Internal Border Checks

In recent years, some EU countries reintroduced border checks within the bloc, citing irregular migration as one of the reasons. Some expect that, with the implementation of the new scheme and its stricter external border controls, those measures will be lifted.
Alexander Dobrindt, German Interior Minister: “No. In the last few months, we have been able to see how effective our measures are in pushing back illegal migration. And it is precisely these successes that must not be jeopardized now. That is why it is still necessary for our measures to take effect.”

Germany and other European states want to prevent secondary migration. This means stopping people who have arrived in one EU state from moving on to another one.

Under this principle, the country in which a person arrives remains responsible, even if they move on to another EU state, and they can be sent back to that country from elsewhere in the bloc.

This principle was deemed unfair by the countries at the EU’s external border, but it is still in place under the new scheme, with an added new element.

Promise #3: Solidarity Among Member States

The new pact includes what the EU calls flexible solidarity.
In the past, the bloc tried to force member states to take in a fair share of asylum seekers from countries at the external border. Now mandatory relocation quotas are replaced with the option to instead contribute financially or operationally to the border member states.
Cyprus, Greece, Italy and Spain would have access to the solidarity pool, as they are considered to be under migratory pressure.

But as with everything, if I understand correctly, relocating or resettling these people involves significant costs, and this is where the most vulnerable countries might be able to recoup their efforts in resettling them. And this is where I hope the funds provided will truly go toward helping the reception centers and the resettlement of these migrants. But that will certainly be the subject of another article.
There’s also the fact that many countries are now focused on finding places to house these migrants whose asylum claims have been denied. The fact is that behind every person who arrives in Europe there is a story, and it’s like cataloging books and standardizing them so that they all fit the same description.

But one thing remains clear: we are facing a severe migration crisis that will only continue to grow, fueled by numerous complex factors—many of which stem from the manipulation of information or the influence of governments or states that profit from this instability by creating confusion and chaos.