Ceuta: What Has Changed Over Five Years

A comparison between the crisis in Ceuta in 2021 and the one in 2026 arouses a sense of déjà vu. Their scenes and sequence of events are perfectly similar, but the numbers, explanations, response in Ceuta, reactions in Europe, and most importantly the consequences, are different.

This comparison also lays bare the contradictions underlying Spanish and European migration policy and to what extent it is hard to escape them without changing the overall framework. This is a finding made by Blanca Garcés, senior research fellow at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB).

The first and most obvious difference is in the two incidents’ scale. If in 2021 between 8,000 and 10,000 people entered Ceuta, this time we are looking at around 80,000. This is due to the readiness of a growing number of young people to make the leap to the other side at a moment’s notice. They are ready to give up everything (even their lives) because ultimately they feel they are giving up nothing, neither work nor rights. When you can’t alter your own country, try a change of country.

The response of the EU and its member States has actually changed for the opposite over five years. In 2021, European politicians unanimously supported the Spanish government and repeatedly called for commitment from Morocco.

In contrast, within a few hours now, 22 EU member States signed a letter that implicitly took issue with Spain over its control of the external border.

Every crisis has its consequences, and there are significant differences between 2021 and 2026 here, too.

In 2021, the Spanish government ended up recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara in exchange for respect for territorial integrity (referring particularly to Ceuta and Melilla) and a return to normality at the border.

It is still too early to determine what consequences the current crisis will have, but there will certainly be some.

On a political level, there is no doubt that the images from Ceuta – not just those of the arrivals but also of the subsequent chaos in the city – reinforce anti-immigration stances. The polls show that most European citizens are not against immigration, but they do fear the lack of control. That is what the scenes in Ceuta appear to confirm.

The comparison between 2021 and 2026 shows that we are faced with contradictory imperatives that are quite difficult to reconcile.

More control means greater dependence on third countries, at least in the current framework. In turn, greater dependence means less leverage and bargaining power. A tougher approach is incompatible with the current domestic and European legal framework.

And exclusion and confinement, as a prior step to supposed deportation, only cause a new round of the conflict, which, in turn, leads to demands for more control.

In other words, Spain and Europe have created a migratory model whose contradictions cannot be resolved through minor political efforts, but this will be needed sooner or later. A third Ceuta, perhaps really a bloody one, is just around the corner.

Original publication: https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/ceuta-whats-different-time