Merz Losing Control Quicker than Expected

The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces the most serious crisis in his party since he came to power. A botched reshuffle in his cabinet and the rise of the Alternative for Germany put his continued stay in office into question.

Henning Hoff, executive editor of Internationale Politik Quarterly, describes in his article entitled A Troubled Merz Faces Crucial Elections in September how an amateurish government reshuffle went badly wrong for the Chancellor. After the involuntary resignation of the CDU/CSU parliamentary leader Jens Spahn, Merz tried to fill the vacancy promptly. But the candidate he nominated to be the new transport minister refused the post at the last moment; the news that the incumbent minister was being fired had already leaked, so the situation went out of control. What was to look like a confident personnel decision turned into a public demonstration of disarray.

As a result, the Chancellor looked authoritarian and unprepared at once. That caused huge anger within the CDU. Many perceived the incident as proof of Merz managing the party like a company, not a political organization. With the CDU rating dropping to 21 percent and the AfD opposition party climbing to 28 percent, the crisis goes strategic. Such a plummet of support is especially painful for a party that recently positioned itself as a pillar of stability.

In September, key regional elections are forthcoming in the eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The scenario is especially dangerous in Saxony-Anhalt where the AfD may come close to an absolute majority. If the ‘firewall’ is broken at the regional level, this may trigger a split within the CDU itself. Even partial success of the AfD will create a precedent that will be difficult to ignore in other eastern states.

The author does not exclude that the party may decide to replace the chancellor if things go bad. Cited as the most plausible alternative is Hendrik Wüst, a more centrist state prime minister in North Rhine-Westphalia. He would be a bitter disappointment for that part of the conservative wing which recently saw Merz as a chance to leave Merkel’s era behind. Yet fears of full loss of power may outweigh ideological preferences. Intra-party logic of survival is often stronger than policy positions.

Germany is entering a period of high political volatility. A chancellor who quite recently seemed a figure of ‘post-Merkelian’ renewal now risks becoming a symbol of new weakness. If the September elections confirm AfD growth and a deepening crisis within the CDU, then the duration of Merz’s chancellorship will cease to be a theoretical question. The crisis within the party may turn out far more destructive than the external challenges Berlin is trying to cope with.

Even if Merz holds office in the coming months, trust in him within the party has already eroded. Amid growing support for AfD and the weakening of traditional parties, Germany risks entering a protracted period of political turbulence where any mistake by the chancellor will be perceived as proof of his inability to govern. The combination of the chancellor’s low popularity and AfD rise in the east looks especially alarming.

If the regional elections show the ‘firewall’ to begin collapsing, that will create a precedent hard to reverse. Not only Merz’s fate but also the CDU’s ability to stay united as a nation-wide party will then be called into question. In the weeks to come, Germany will face a choice: either the chancellor will manage to quickly regain control and convince his party of his own efficiency, or the intra-party crisis will grow into an open search for a replacement.

The latter course of events no longer looks impossible. The political price of delays and mistakes grows with every passing week. Long considered an island of relative stability, Germany now shows signs of profound inner strain. And the chancellor, who was expected to turn the country around, now risks remaining in history as a ruler who let that strain surface.

Should the September elections consolidate this trend, replacing Merz will go beyond discussions within his party to become a practical policy issue. For the CDU, that will mean not just a change of leader but the need to redefine its identity with the right-wing flank already occupied by the AfD and the centrist space still cloudy. In this situation, any further mistake by the Chancellor will cost him more than the previous one.

Germany faces the risk of not just a change of chancellor but a deeper political turn. Unless and until Merz regains control over his party and proves capable of stopping the rise of the AfD, his position will remain extremely vulnerable. And a vulnerable chancellor of Europe’s biggest economy automatically becomes a factor of instability for the whole continent.

The coming months will show whether Merz can reverse this negative trend or the party will seek a solution without him. The latter scenario no longer looks exotic. For Germany it will mean not just a staff change but recognition that the stake on a ‘strong chancellor’ in the post-Merkelian era was premature and ill-prepared.

Original publication: https://ip-quarterly.com/en/troubled-merz-faces-crucial-elections-september